Tellugram Blog

Visit my new TELLUGRAM blog

2011-03-22T23:53:00.005-06:00

Survey: Vacation Home Market on the Rebound?

2011-03-21T14:45:00.000-06:00

I wanted to share this survey with you. Participants from 39 states, Canada, Europe and Latin America provided input on various topics including housing preferences, motivating factors, pricing levels and time lines for purchase.

http://www.sunshinestatenews.com/story/survey-vacation-home-market-rebound

The most popular size are "smaller" homes - between 1,700 and 2,299 square feet. Results reinforced second-home buyers are interested in homes they can live in vs. looking for a quick turnover.

Let me know if you have any questions.

Enjoy!
George

Spring Ski and Stay from $101!!

2011-03-02T16:06:00.000-07:00

Have you experienced Spring skiing in Telluride? If you have, you know it is the best! If you haven't, what are you waiting for? This is an amazing deal!

Best Buy in Telluride This Week

2011-02-22T13:39:00.000-07:00

You can check out my pick for Best Buy in Telluride real estate, just click here!

Enjoy!
George

Overpriced, Underpriced Housing Markets Article

2011-01-15T14:46:00.000-07:00

Here's an interesting article I recently read on Realtor magazine.

Overpriced, Underpriced Housing Markets Realtor Magazine News 201101

Sincerely,

George

TheHarveyTeam.net

Telluride, Colorado

Best time to buy resort property in Colorado

2011-01-13T15:16:00.000-07:00

I hope you enjoy this article I read online at the Denver Post -

Foreclosures in Colo. mountains scaling record heights

By Jason Blevins, The Denver Post

Click to read more about:

Sincerely,

George

The State of the Town of Telluride - Bouncing Back

2011-01-13T15:14:00.000-07:00

Here is an article from the Telluride Daily Planet regarding ...

The state of the town: bouncing back

Mayor highlights accomplishments, challenges in address
By Katie Klingsporn, Associate Editor

Published: Tuesday, January 11, 2011 10:30 PM CST

2010 was a good year for the Town of Telluride. It saw the economy perk back up after a severe slump, got two affordable housing projects up and running and ended up with more revenues that it planned for.

Despite that, the town still faces challenges —

Enjoy!

George

TheHarveyTeam.net

Telluride, Colorado

Positive Homes Sales Information

2010-12-31T15:22:00.000-07:00

Here's some positive information regarding home sales from Wells Fargo.
Read it here.

George

Skiing Telluride!

2010-12-30T15:41:00.000-07:00

George and Becky Harvey 12/30/10

Skiing is great in Telluride. A foot of new snow in last 24 hours and it’s still snowing.

Come join us!
George and Becky

Telluride: Prettiest Ski Town!

2010-12-29T20:34:00.000-07:00

Here's a link to Sunset Magazine's Best Ski Towns in the West. Does your favorite destination make their list?

Enjoy!
George

Winter Ski Packages at the New Sheridan

2010-12-24T20:45:00.000-07:00

Check out these new seasonal specials offered at the New Sheridan.

A Little Recognition from Luxury Insights blog!

2010-12-17T14:20:00.000-07:00

From December 16, 2010 Luxury Insights blog - - "WSJ: Wall Street Bonuses and Where Are the Wealthy?"

A couple interesting posts on the Wealth Report...

Sincerely,
George
TheHarveyTeam.net
Telluride, Colorado

2011 Colorado Resort Job Growth Forecast per Economist

2010-12-15T14:02:00.000-07:00

Here's an uplifting news article about the Colorado resort economy for 2011!

Resort valleys forecast small job growth in ‘11

Economist reviews Colorado

DENVER, Colo. – Resort-dominated counties in Colorado will see employment growth in 2011, according to a projection of the Colorado State Demography Office given at a November conference.

“Mountain resort communities were hit very hard by the recession, but at the same time, they are one of the industries that I expect will do—I wouldn’t say well, but OK—in 2011,” says David Keyser, an economist with the state office.

Eagle County (Vail) stands out. Mr. Keyser forecasts a gain of more than 2.5% in employment next year. In 2012, he sees a gain of between 3.1% and 5.5%. He forecasts more rapid employment growth in other mountain resort counties of Colorado, but none quite as much as in Eagle County. “I expect a 2 percent job growth in tourism overall—which is pretty good,” he said.

He bases his projections for the resort counties on the idea that they draw business from other parts of the country, but particularly the nation’s more affluent sectors, which have not been as deeply affected by the recession.

This has been confirmed in reports during the last year from resort valleys of the West, where the high-end real estate markets have returned most rapidly, even if prices remain deeply discounted from the 2008 wish-for list prices.

More broadly in Colorado, population growth has continued even during the recession. As it always has been, and maybe always will be, growth has been greatest in metropolitan Denver-Boulder area. The state, now with a population of just over 5 million, is projected to hit 6.2 million in the next decade.

Telluride Market Holds Steady

2010-12-13T13:21:00.000-07:00

I found this Telluride Daily Planet article while surfing the web and thought you might find it interesting, too.

Sincerely,

George

George Harvey

TheHarveyTeam.net

Telluride, Colorado

970-729-0111

In a shaky market, Telluride holds steady
The Daily Planet
“I don't believe that all this great news has gotten us to the end zone,” Riley said, noting that retailers are still struggling, real estate activity have ...

Telluride Tops Rankings!

2010-12-13T13:04:00.000-07:00

Here's some great news about our region received via my Telluride Ski and Golf newsletter!

George

Consumers Doubt Housing Market is Turning Around per survey

2010-12-13T12:48:00.000-07:00

I thought you might find this article of interest.

Enjoy!

George

Consumers doubt housing market is turning around, survey shows - By Aldo Svaldi
The Denver Post

U.S. consumers don't see the housing recovery happening soon and many said they would walk away from homes with negative equity, according to a survey from Trulia.com and RealtyTrac. View Full Story

Bigger Planes into TEX by Christmas 2011

2010-11-26T07:30:00.000-07:00

Thought some of you might find this article from the Telluride Watch interesting!

Enjoy!

George

TEX Could See Bigger Planes by Christmas 2011

by Seth Cagin - Watch Newspapers

11.19.10 - 10:56 am

TELLURIDE - The Telluride Regional Airport is prepared to make improvements to its terminal to accommodate bigger planes in time for the 2011 holiday season, provided that the Telluride-Montrose Regional Air Organization is able to bring flights to the airport by then.

The improvements to the terminal are necessary to meet security requirements, through the creation of a larger space for passengers to wait after being cleared through security. Plans are in place to make the improvements at a cost of about $1.5 million.

And while the airport board has budgeted for the improvements in 2011, it will not necessarily pull the trigger on construction until and unless flights are scheduled.

The airport can accommodate bigger aircraft as of this year due to a $50 million runway improvement that was completed this summer. But whether airlines will utilize the airport is a separate question.

The Regional Air Organization will be n egotiating with airlines to obtain flights to TEX in the spring. If flights are secured, that will allow sufficient time for the necessary terminal improvements to be completed, Jon Dwight , who serves on both the air organization and airport boards told the air organization board.

Scott Stewart, director of the air organization, told the board on Friday that he did not believe airlines would be concerned by the fact that the terminal improvements are merely approved and funded but not yet constructed when they consider whether or not to schedule TEX.

Improved air service to Telluride has been a long-term goal for both the Telluride Regional Airport and the Regional Air Organization, and is now possible since the biggest obstacle, the runway improvements, are complete. To the same end, the airport is also weighing whether to seek approval for commercial flights in and out of TEX after dark.

Air service to TEX has steadily declined over the last decade as service to the Montrose County Airport has improved.

Thanks for reading!
Watch Newspapers

Luxury Homes Rally by John Rebchook

2010-11-18T07:27:00.000-07:00

Thought you might enjoy this blog article I received via:

Luxury Homes Rally
November 16, 2010 - John Rebchook
Buyers snapped up 47 homes in the Denver area in October priced at $1 million or more, a 26% increase from October 2009. That is a marked improvement from September, when the luxury home buying market to a nose-dive. Read more...

Big News in Telluride - The Vision of The Peaks Resort

2010-11-12T14:32:00.000-07:00

Read the full article at: http://telluridewatch.com/view/full_story/10291334/article-Peaks-Resort-Floats-an-Ambitious-Plan-to-Add-Rooms-in-Conjunction-With-an-Improved-Conference-Center?instance=top_story

100 Top Professionals Luxury Real Estate Conclave

2010-10-31T23:22:00.000-06:00

George R. Harvey, Jr. joins 100 top professionals at invitation-only luxury real estate conclave

“Leaders in Luxury” event draws top luxury real estate professionals to Austin (TX)

DALLAS, Texas. (October 25, 2010) – From California to New York, and Canada to Florida, 100 of the top real estate professionals working in the upscale residential market converged last week in Austin (TX) at The Institute for Luxury Home Marketing’s annual Leaders in Luxury (LIL) conference where ...read more...

Telluride Spur a Top Priority For 2011 Budget

2010-10-31T16:08:00.000-06:00

This article is very informative about future Telluride capital improvements that might be important to sellers and buyers.

Link to article in Telluride Watch newspaper

Sincerely,

George R. Harvey, Jr.

President of Colorado Association of Realtors 2010

Owner/Broker, The Harvey Team

P.O. Box 2283, Telluride , CO 81435

970-729-0111 cell

www.TheHarveyTeam.net

Click here to view George's credentials

2010-10-28T15:00:00.000-06:00

Here's a link to a video with some interesting statistics regarding existing home sales!

Existing-Home Sales Post Strong Gain
Existing-home sales rose again in September, affirming that a sales recovery has begun, NAR says. Sales jumped 10 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.53 million in September from a downwardly revised 4.12 million in August. Watch and link to a video of Yun’s press conference from earlier this week.

Enjoy your Thursday!

George

George R. Harvey, Jr.

President of Colorado Association of Realtors 2010

Owner/Broker, The Harvey Team

P.O. Box 2283, Telluride , CO 81435

970-729-0111 cell

www.TheHarveyTeam.net

Click here to view George's credentials

Telluride Bans Plastic Grocery Bags

2010-10-26T11:29:00.000-06:00

Here's a snip from a recent Telluride Watch newspaper article (the online version).

"The new law prohibits grocers and other retailers located within town limits from distributing most types of disposable plastic bags to customers when the law goes into effect on March 1, 2011. Bags excluded from the prohibition include those used within a store such as those for meat, vegetable and bulk items, prescription drug bags, newspaper bags, packaged multiple bags and reusable carryout bags.

Beginning a few months prior to the plastic ban, on Jan. 1, 2011, both Clark’s Market and the Village Market must begin collecting a 10-cent per bag Advance Recovery Fee on the paper bags they give out. Per the ordinance, those bags must contain at least 40 percent recycled content with no old-growth fiber, and be 100 percent recyclable."

You can read the full story here: The Watch Newspapers - Telluride Is the First Community in Colorado to Ban Plastic Bags

Million-Dollar Home Showings Rise

2010-08-04T19:08:00.000-06:00

InsideRealEstateNews.com

Your source for Colorado real estate news and information. Edited by John Rebchook

Join the conversation: InsideRealEstateNews.com

Million-Dollar Home Showings Rise

Peter Niederman, in addition to being the CEO of Kentwood Real Estate, is a student of the housing market, who loves to pour over data to discern the tea leaves of the Denver housing market.

Recently, an in-house statistic caught his eye, when he was looking over the June data for Kentwood , including offices in Cherry Creek, the DTC, and Kentwood City Properties in downtown Denver . ( Kentwood is a part-owner in Kentwood City Properties.)

"While our overall showings for all price points were down 10.1 percent in June, compared with June 2009, our million dollar-plus showings were up 8.2 percent," Niederman said.

That is the metric that is extremely important. Indeed, in some ways he thinks that takes the temperature of the the market better than......click here to continue reading this article on InsideRealEstateNews.com

From former Rocky Mountain News reporter John Rebchook and sponsored by Universal Lending Corporation and Land Title, InsideRealEstateNews.com is a new blog that providing the latest news and most insightful analysis of the dynamic Colorado real estate industry. Be sure to add InsideRealEstateNews.com to your whitelist, favorites, subscribe via RSS or sign up for our email newsletter so you don't miss out on the source of news for the Colorado real estate professionals.

San Miguel County Real Estate Activity Report thru June 2010

2010-07-31T14:32:00.000-06:00

CLICK HERE TO ENLARGE

Best Buy of the Week - - was listed at $265,000

2010-07-09T15:28:00.000-06:00

Updated my pick for "Best Buy of the Week". Check it out at:
http://www.theharveyteam.net/Nav.aspx/Page=%2fPageManager%2fDefault.aspx%2fPageID%3d2154100

Telluride Real Estate Market Updates

2010-05-24T15:53:00.000-06:00

Click to enlarge any image below or visit www.TheHarveyTeam.net "How's the Market?" page.

Denver Post article link

2010-05-24T14:43:00.000-06:00

From:

Big chill on mountain resort areas' home sales beginning to thaw
By Margaret Jackson
The Denver Post

http://www.denverpost.com/business/ci_15139996

Mortgage Loans Are Available

2010-05-17T09:19:00.000-06:00

Traditional SFR purchases up to the 2010 confirming loan limits with 20% down
30yr fixed 4.875%
20yr fixed 4.75%
15 & 10yr fixed 4.25%
5/1 ARM 4.25% and 7/1 & 10/1 ARM’s priced at 4.75%.

FHA with as little as 3.5% down
30yr fixed 4.875%
15yr fixed 4.50%
3/1 ARM 4.25%
5/1 ARM 3.75%

Jumbo loans up to $1,000,000.00 (primary and second homes)30yr fixed 6.25%
5/1 ARM 4.75%

Jumbo loans from $1,000,000.00 to $5,000,000.005/1 ARM 6.625%

Telluride Airport Gets Funding

2010-05-16T18:00:00.000-06:00

TEX receives $3.4 mil. addtl. grant funding

News

Airport snags federal funding

$3.4 million for
emergency system

By Matthew Beaudin
Editor

Published: Tuesday, May 11, 2010 8:59 PM CDT

Think of it as a runaway truck ramp. For airplanes. On a runway that dead ends before 1,000 feet (or so) of oblivion.

Thanks to a federal grant, the Telluride Regional Airport will get such a system — crushable concrete at the end of its runway — as part of its laundry list of improvements.

U.S. Congressman John Salazar announced the $3.4 million in funding late last week.

The system is designed to keep planes from running off the runway, without harming passengers and with minimal damage to the aircraft itself. The systems are called Engineered Materials Arresting Systems, or EMAS.

“As a pilot who frequently travels through Colorado’s mountain airspace I know how important it is to do all we can to make airport runways as safe as we possibly can,” Salazar said in a press release. “I support this funding for the Telluride Regional Airport and I will continue to support projects that put people to work and improve our country’s infrastructure.”

Airport Manager Rich Nuttall said the work has already begun. “They’re out there working as we speak,” he said. Officials weren’t certain they’d grab the funding to polish off an expensive and lengthy runway improvement.

“We were hoping for it,” he said. “It’s always great when you get it.”

The airport is closed until June 9.

To date, $33 million has been spent on the airport’s much-lamented runway. That’s money that has gone to flatten out a strip that once bowed. The runway also gained some length, in hopes of attracting larger planes to the tiny airport in the sky, which, at 9,078 feet, is the loftiest commercial terminal in the country.

“This is a fabulous opportunity for the Telluride Airport to complete the safety improvements for the runway,” Nuttall said in a release. “This allows us to complete the schedule for phase three of the project and it will allow us to complete all the safety requirements for the runway. We appreciate the congressman’s support on this.”

TEX Receives $3.4 Million in Additional Grant Funding

by Karen James

Phase 3 Project Now Completely Funded

TELLURIDE – The Telluride Regional Airport has received an additional $3.4 million in federal funding to complete the third of a multi-phase runway and safety area improvement project in its entirety, U.S. Congressman John Salazar’s office confirmed on Friday, May 7.

The grant fills a critical shortfall between the $17 million in federal funding for completion of the phase previously awarded to the airport and announced by Salazar in early March, and a low construction bid of $20.4 million to complete the project opened just a few weeks later.

“As a pilot who frequently travels through Colorado’s mountain airspace I know how important it is to do all we can to make airport runways as safe as we possibly can. I support this funding for the Telluride Regional Airport and I will continue to support projects that put people to work and improve our country’s infrastructure,” Salazar said in a press release forwarded to The Watch prior to its wider distribution.

Now that full funding for the project has been secured, the airport will be able to complete each of 10 items scheduled for the phase, finally qualifying for a status upgrade from its current B-III safety category to a new D-III rating.

With the upgrade the airport will be able to accommodate larger aircraft than it can at present, notably the Bombardier Q400 airplane that is capable of carrying 76 passengers, upon which many are hedging their bets for improved tourism in the Telluride region.

“This really takes care of all the safety items for the runway project,” said Airport Manager Rich Nuttall. “We appreciate the Congressman's support on this.”

With the initial funding of $17 million for the phase the airport would have been able to complete its highest priority items including all of the earthworks needed for the safety areas upgrades and the installation of Engineered Material Arresting System – or EMAS – at each end of the runway, according to Nuttall.

EMAS is a bed of crushable concrete placed at the end of a runway that is designed to keep aircraft from running off the runway without harming passengers and with minimal aircraft damage. EMAS systems are often compared to runaway truck ramps used on steep-grade highways.

However, the difference between the original grant and the total construction cost meant that lower priority items still necessary for the safety category upgrade would have remained incomplete until new funding could be secured.

“If we get the physical work done by November 1 we’re theoretically two years ahead of schedule,” said Nuttall.

“This is a major accomplishment for the airport.”

Yet although the airport could conceivably qualify for the status change in just a few months, it will still be some time before it is actually able to accept larger aircraft.

The Federal Aviation Administration will still need to design and publish new category approaches for the runway that enable pilots to fly into the airport during bad weather using instruments rather than visual references, Nuttall said.

While that process could take as long as 18 months, “We’re hoping to get it done sooner than that,” he said.

The terminal will also need to be enlarged in order to accommodate the increased number of passengers that come and go in the larger aircraft.

“The goal is to have all those three items done by November 2011,” said Nuttall.

Unlike the last year’s Phase 2 project – a $23 million, seven-month phase of improvements that closed TEX between April and November while crews backfilled a notorious dip at the runway’s center, Phase 3 will have it closed only between May 10 and June 8, and now possibly for a few days in August.

“That should be all the closures for this year,” said Nuttall.

Most Buyers Will Still Buy After the Tax Credit Expires

2010-04-30T12:08:00.000-06:00

Households Unfazed by Expiring Tax Credits
The expiration of the home buyer tax credits won’t deter optimistic households who believe the market is improving, according to a survey released Wednesday by Prudential Real Estate and Relocation Services.

More than 90 percent of those surveyed believe the home buyer tax credits have helped both first-time buyers and the overall housing market, but 65 percent say that end of tax credits won’t reduce their personal interest in buying a home.

Over the next five years, 79 percent expect real estate prices to increase, and 20 percent expect prices to rise substantially. Only 12 percent believe prices will decrease.

Among renters, 75 percent believe owning a home is a better long-term choice for them than renting.

The majority of consumers also believe that homeownership is a good investment, with 75 percent saying it is better than stocks or bonds, 72 percent preferring it to mutual funds, and 74 percent saying it surpasses savings accounts.

Source: Prudential Real Estate and Relocation Services, Inc. (04/28/2010)

This Week's Best Buy...

2010-03-24T16:14:00.000-06:00

Updated Best Buy this Week on TheHarveyTeam website. Check it out here: TheHarveyTeam.net

Real Estate Recovering?

2010-03-20T14:05:00.001-06:00

Housing Experts Say Real Estate is Recovering

New York Times Article about Telluride

2010-03-09T10:20:00.000-07:00

FDIC Provides Additional Information on its Loss Share Agreement With OneWest Bank
Supplemental Facts about the Sale of Indymac F.S.B. to OneWest Bank

Telluride Airport Expansion

2010-03-09T09:23:00.000-07:00

http://telluridenews.com/articles/2010/03/09/news/doc4b9302fe131d1688027359.txt
Telluride Airport Expansion

Colorado Banks Struggling---Especially Western Slope Banks

2010-03-08T12:44:00.000-07:00

Colorado banks' red ink outpaces U.S. average in 2009 - By Miles Moffeit

Denver Million Dollar Home Sales Lag

2010-03-01T12:31:00.000-07:00

Jan. sales of million-dollar homes down from December, year ago - The Denver Post

Denver Leads Colorado Real Estate Economy

2010-02-28T15:37:00.000-07:00

usiness

Denver home prices up over December '08

By Margaret Jackson
The Denver Post

Posted: 02/24/2010 01:00:00 AM MST

Updated: 02/24/2010 01:45:00 AM MST

Denver was among six metropolitan areas in a 20-city survey released Tuesday that saw home prices increase in December compared with the same period a year ago.
Denver-area home prices rose 1.2 percent in December compared with the same month in 2008, the fifth-largest increase among the cities, according to the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home-price index.
Chris Mygatt, president and chief operating officer of Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage, said the number is encouraging, though it's lagging by two months.
"It's supported by the fact that over the last five months ending in January, we've seen increases in average sales prices, which we haven't seen in three years," he said. "That, in conjunction with the fact that our inventory continues to go down, puts more and more pressure on pricing.
"It's the beginning of a trend."
One of the keys to lower inventory is keeping people in their jobs, Mygatt said.
"As long as we keep Coloradans employed, they don't have to give their homes up," he said. "If they don't have to give their homes up, inventory comes down."
Home prices in the 20-city index dropped 2.5 percent during the fourth quarter compared with a year ago, indicating that prices are stabilizing.
Declines during the first, second and third quarters were 19 percent, 14.7 percent and 8.7 percent, respectively.
"Nationwide, home prices seem to be in that move toward almost recovery," said economist Jeff Thredgold of Vectra Bank Colorado. "We've seen enough decline in nationwide prices to talk more about the idea of stabilization of prices. We're seeing more signs of stabilization, but now the anxiety is about what will happen with mortgage rates."
Margaret Jackson: 303-954-1473 or mjackson@denverpost.com

Telluride Economy Improving---George get's Quoted

2010-02-28T08:33:00.000-07:00

Story:
ECONOMY Revenue increases for cash-strapped town Telluride sees boost in tax revenues as sales and real estate improve

Just a year ago, the Town of Telluride was cutting its budget to the bone. In response to plummeting tax revenues, the town axed projects, cut services, put capital projects on hold and laid off employees.

Sometime this fall, though, the economy began a slow turnaround as the real estate market began a climb from the bottom and tourism started to turn up better numbers.

For more of this story, click on or type the URL below:

http://www.telluridenews.com/articles/2010/02/27/news/doc4b873a361c29a340151171.txt

UK Second Home Market Picks Up

2010-02-26T16:36:00.001-07:00

*English buy record number of 2nd homes - Global edge

Top Ten Cities in US for Increased Home Prices

2010-02-26T14:09:00.001-07:00

Top 10 Cities with Climbing Home Prices

Updated Market Analysis and 2010 Forecast

2010-02-25T13:22:00.000-07:00

Updated information regarding Telluride Real Estate 2009 Market Analysis and my 2010 Real Estate Forecast is now available on my website. Visit: TheHarveyTeam.net

Telluride Snow Report - February 21, 2010

2010-02-21T18:50:00.000-07:00

Telluride Ski Resort / Snow Report

Today

25
-4°C

Base

66

24 Hours

5

48 Hours

18

7 Day Total

22

Season Total

194

To visit the official Telluride Ski Resort website with the full snow report, go to:

http://tellurideskiresort.com/Tellski/snow-report.aspx

As Denver Real Estate Improves That Helps Telluride

2010-02-16T18:03:00.000-07:00

Zillow.com: Denver leads U.S. in 2009 dollar gain of home values - By Aldo Svaldi

Colorado Real Estate Economy

2010-02-05T16:58:00.000-07:00

To some extent, Telluride like all other Colorado resorts are affected by the over all state economy. Colorado's real estate economy is doing better than most.........

Snapshot-Colorado Real Estate Industry

Good airline fairs to Telluride

2010-01-30T15:55:00.000-07:00

It now cheaper and easier to fly to Telluride than any time in the last ten years............

Average Denver airfare sinks 35 percent from 2000-09, data show - By Ann Schrader

Telluride weekly Best Buys

2010-01-20T11:24:00.000-07:00

Since the last quarter of 2009, we have been sending out to our 'buyer clients' our weekly Telluride real estate 'Best buy' recommendations. Those recommendations are a review of all homes, condominiums, residential lots, and land/ranch real estate properties in the Telluride Region. If you would like to be put on our distribution list please send us and email to george@tellurideproperties.com. We also produce an extensive Telluride Regional real estate Annual Report with quarterly updates that you will also receive. We love feedback, so please let us know how we can help you with any questions that you may have about Telluride Regional real estate.

George Harvey

Internet Visitors to Telluride Properties Website in December

2010-01-04T18:03:00.001-07:00

How many countries and territories are looking at Telluride real estate on line?

879 visits came from 38 countries/territories in the month of December!

Winter 2009/2010 Starts of with Big Bang

2009-12-27T14:06:00.000-07:00

Three great happenings for the winter 2009 -- 2010 give the Telluride Region some very positive things to talk about. Enjoy....

Click on the link below to see the article recently published in The Telluride Watch titled “Telluride Scores a Tourism Trifecta”.

http://tinyurl.com/yanmsvn

New Press Release!

2009-12-17T15:27:00.000-07:00

Just updated TheHarveyTeam.net website with a new press release. If you would like to check it out click here.

George R. Harvey, Jr., Debbie Howard, Mike Owens
2009 REALTORS® Conference & Expo
San Diego, California
November 2009

Telluride Airport - Now Open!

2009-11-14T22:12:00.000-07:00

Telluride Regional Airport Runway Improvement Update

Phase II reconstruction started on April 7th and was completed November 4th, 2009.

Phase II consisted of the removal of the existing runway and reducing the grades which resulted in the west end of the runway being lowered by 30 feet the center of the runway (dip error) was raised 16 feet, and the east end of the runway was lowered 14 feet. The result of this is a runway that now meets FAA standards. In addition, the safety areas west of the old dip area have been widened to 250 feet from 150 feet. We have also added all new runway lighting and extended the length of the runway to 6,911 feet.

Phase III we’re anticipating having completed in 2010 which will widen the remaining safety areas and add engineered material arresting system (EMASS).

For more information visit www.TellurideAirport.com

2009-10-16T21:21:00.000-06:00

Have we found the bottom?

Yes: The average number of sales in San Miguel County for the first nine months of 2009 has been 20 sales per month; however, in August there were 30 sales and in September there were 28 sales. I am not including foreclosure sales at this point because they are a relatively small number of sales. Most of the foreclosure sales that have happened are coming back on the market to be resold.

The major question most Telluride brokers have now is whether the August and September spike in sales was a normal summer increase or a long-term trend. My personal guess is a little of both. We will know much better at the end of this year if the number of sales hold closer to 20 per month or 30 per month. My forecast is from now through the end of 2010 we will see the number of monthly sales gradually increasing.

No: We haven’t found the bottom for sellers. Unfortunately we still have a tremendous amount of inventory and roughly a 7-10 year supply of real estate in every category. As you will see on the attached spreadsheet the number of listings has remained fairly stable at a high level.

Maybe: The last half of the summer has generated some terrific buys for the astute purchaser. There is no question the number of showings has gone up significantly this summer compared to this last winter. Buyers are now looking for bargains and they are finding and purchasing some. If you’re a buyer you should be looking now. Even if you believe prices will continue to adjust that doesn’t mean you will find better purchases. Remember our buyers are smart, just like the sellers, and will be looking for the best buys first with the future buyers having the leftovers.

Conclusion: My conclusion about whether we have found the bottom depends if you are a real estate broker, a seller or a buyer. Each one’s perspective is different but generally speaking I think the discounts of 20-40% off of 2007 prices will continue to be seen through 2010 and inventory will start to sell at a faster rate.

P.S. Be sure to open the attachment for a specific area of interest. Feel free to call or email me for my Best Buys list. My cell is 970-729-0111.

Sincerely,

George R. Harvey, Jr.
Broker Associate

Telluride Properties

237 South Oak Street
Telluride, CO 81435

Located at the Telluride Gondola

Direct: 970-369-5373

Fax: 970-728-5407

www.TheHarveyTeam.net

CAR Inaugural Event

2009-09-25T15:09:00.000-06:00

Telluride and the Second Homeowner

2009-09-09T13:52:00.000-06:00

No other resort community in Colorado has benefited more from the support and involvement of the second homeowner than the Telluride community. Since 1981 when the 3% real estate transfer tax was initiated over $54 million has been paid into the Town of Telluride coffers. The majority has come from second homeowners. Not only have they paid the highest transfer tax of any resort in Colorado but also the highest building approval and governmental fees compared to any other resort. They pay the majority of our school taxes yet for the most part don’t have children enrolled here. They also helped pay for our library and most recently gave the significant majority of the donated money for the acquisition of the Valley Floor. Yet Telluride seems to have a love/hate relationship with the second homeowner. Many seem to resent their presence here. Some want to penalize them for not being here often enough. In other words, a home vacancy tax. Many of the second homeowners have become permanent residents of our community. They and our part-time residents support our sporting goods stores, our restaurants, our art galleries, our cultural events and volunteer for many of our non-profits. Without the second homeowner and major regional developers the Telluride Foundation would have never been created.

I am sad to say that Telluride has the lowest number of real estate sales year-to-date compared to any resort in the state of Colorado. While we have always loved being small, contained and remote, real estate has historically been a vital part of the economics of this community. Recently at the urging of several long-time locals the Telluride Town Council has initiated a new penalty fee for job creation in one of the most significant unemployment times in our history. Unemployment is on the rise in our community as well the U.S. and penalizing home builders for creating jobs seems to be exactly opposite of what the President of the United States is trying to do.

How high are our fees? Our real estate transfer tax is double Aspen’s, triple Vail’s and competes with 0% transfer tax in Breckenridge, Steamboat Springs and Durango. Some of the regular locals who attend the Town Council meetings while the rest of us are working would have you believe that we can continue to gouge the affluent with more fees that they won’t notice. Even some of our Town Council members have stated that publicly. In addition to these new fee suggestions are discussions by some locals to reduce the size of houses that can be built in Telluride and even tell people what kind of refrigerator, washer and dryer they can own. Where will it stop? Some have suggested that we need economic diversification and to the best of my knowledge the vast majority of the real estate community supports that idea. That would not only be good for the local economy but be good for real estate and give more second homeowners and part-time residents a reason to move here. However, I would like to point out that every other destination resort in the U.S. is trying to diversify and has been trying for the last 20-40 years. It is most difficult for destination resorts and far easier for resorts that are closer to metropolitan areas to diversify their economies.

Someone has to send a message to Town Council and the community at large that this clavier attitude that the town of Telluride can continue to tax, fee and permit our way out of this recession will kill the last bit of real estate economy that we have. The second homeowner still wants to come enjoy Telluride and many of them have begun to look at real estate again. If we kill the last remaining real estate fruit-bearing tree that we all have benefit from, it will be impossible for many of the local businesses to survive much less the Town of Telluride government to meet its bond issues and budgetary requirements in the coming years. In this person’s opinion our town government and many in our local community needs to change their attitude toward the second homeowner. We need to tell these important part-time members of our community that we appreciate them being here supporting our local businesses and charities. I propose that the current Mayor of Telluride write that letter with every member of Town Council signing it, have it published in both newspapers to be sure that the current second homeowners and future second homeowners know that they are welcomed and appreciated.

Lastly, we have got to be competitive in the resort industry in Colorado. We can’t continue to have the highest governmental entry fees no matter how beautiful Telluride is and no matter how much we love this place. We are now in the most serious economic times since the ski area opened in 1972. We have to change our attitude and start being more friendly, thankful and appreciative of the second homeowner who has helped create our wonderful public facilities and help pay for the great recreation that we all enjoy.

George Harvey
Local Realtor

San Miguel County Sales Activity through June 2009

2009-07-27T22:59:00.001-06:00

BEST BUYER’S MARKET IN A DECADE

For 25 years I have listened to potential buyers say “I wish that I could have bought some property here a few years ago.” Now, buyers can purchase some properties at prices five years ago… and in some cases even better.

Here are the market stats for the first six months of 2009. See spreadsheet below.

BY THE NUMBERS

1750 - the # of listings in the Telluride MLS on 12/31/08
1715 - the # of listings in the Telluride MLS on 6/30/09
111 - the # of properties sold in the first 6 months of 2009
15 – the # of years that it will take to sell the current inventory, at the current rate
30% - the % of listings that dropped their price in 2008
35% - the % of listings that have dropped their price in the first 6 months of 2009
50% - the % of listings that are still priced at 2007 prices
1500 - the approximate # of 2009 listings that will still be for sale on 12/31/09 (85%)

COMMENTARY
In my 25 years in real estate in Telluride I have never seen a better time to be a buyer than now. Our market is comprised of 1700 different individual sellers who all have different motivations and different staying power. While I see our market unfortunately continuing at this slower pace for 6-12 more months, I do not see the buying opportunity getting any better than it is now. If you have questions about different market segments and different price ranges please review the spreadsheet of the major categories of real estate in our region to see their absorption rate. If you have specific questions about properties for sale or unique buying opportunities please contact me at george@tellurideproperties.com or 970-369-5373.

Sincerely,
George

Telluride Current Market Axioms

2009-06-07T18:01:00.000-06:00

Sometimes, when things are just too confusing, you need to just remember a few simple thoughts. Here are some quotes, ideas and axioms that you will need to remember to get you through these economic times safely and profitably.

$19 trillion--The value of our country's real estate in 2008. In 1999, the value was $10 trillion, increasing to a whopping $22 trillion in 2006. The total amount of real estate doubled in seven years! It would seem that we really shouldn't complain.

Warren Buffett is the world's richest man---and the most successful investor in history. Here's Buffett's advice: Realize that markets always come back---they did after the Bear market in 1974, after the stock market crash of 1987, after the dot.com bust in 1990, and he bought in the 'down markets' everytime. Bad news is an investor's best friend. He is buying now!

"Where there is change, there is opportunity".

"Real Sellers....attract Real Buyers". Sell ahead of the market, don't follow it all the way down.

You make money on the buy, not the sell. If you're a seller, get what you can for your property now and buy the 'best buys' to make your profit.

A recession is a terrible thing to waste.

Focus on the above Axioms and adjust your sail in the middle of a storm. This is when fortunes are made.

First Quarter 2009 Market update

2009-05-09T14:53:00.000-06:00

For the first three months of 2009, the average inventory per day of listed properties in the Telluride Multiple Listing service has been about 1585 properties. The number of sales per month has been 15 to 30 properties. That means about 98% of the properties listed are not selling each month. We are predicting that the summer sales will pick up a little as more sellers price their properties to the current market and have a real desire to actually sell, rather than just 'be for sale'.

We are also predicting that 2009 will be a slow recovering market with 80% of the currently listed properties still on the market at the end of the year. Most sellers are in denial that their properties have lost 20% to 40% of their value. Many don't have to sell and will continue to leave their properties price at 'pre-recession' prices.

Dr. Lawrence Yun---NAR chief economist

2009-04-14T18:46:00.000-06:00

I recently attended a seminar in Denver at which the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors conducted a power point presentation on the national real estate economy and somewhat on the Colorado economy. Here it is and I hope you enjoy it.

http://www.summitassociationofrealtors.com/uploads/colorado_(april_2009)lyonreport.pdf

Wealthy Chinese Investors

2009-04-14T16:26:00.000-06:00

Thought you might like to see this article about Wealthy Chinese Investors that are purchasing property in the U.S.

US property dealers eye wealthy Chinese

Around 20 US real estate brokerage companies and investment firms made their debut in Beijing on Friday, showcasing their property projects to China's wealthy citizens.

This is the first US property selling delegation to China, following a Chinese buying delegation's trip to the US in March.

"China, which has a fast growing economy and an emerging group of rich people, is now a market we cannot afford to miss," said Rob Emerick, head of the US delegation.

According to the Boston Consulting Group's report, China had the world's fifth-largest population of millionaires in 2008, at 391,000, up 20 percent from the previous year.

Forty-something Lin, from Tianjin, is one of the millionaires looking for buying opportunities. "My primary choice is an apartment or a penthouse in Los Angeles where I have a few friends," said Lin. Besides, "in such an economic downturn, you have to find a place for your money", said Lin, who runs a business in Shanxi province.

Thomas Cervone from the MOSAIC property firm, said: "We are very close to the bottom, and the weak dollar makes the Chinese customer's purchase easier."

The annual cash-on-cash return, said Cervone, is expected to reach 7.6 percent before tax, the appreciation being around 5 percent in three to five years.

Experts say there are no legal barriers for Chinese people to buy properties in the US, but prolonged stay there without a valid green card remains impossible.

"Even though you own an apartment in the US, you still need business or tourist visa for short-term stay and a green card for long-term stay," said Yin Guohua, a lawyer specialized in the property sector.

(Source: China Daily, 2009-04-11)

Current Recession

2009-04-13T12:15:00.000-06:00

Dr. Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, spoke in Denver last Thursday. Of note, was his comment that this recession is the first in decades that real estate prices and interest rates are both low at the same time. Property affordability has never been better. Foreclosure sales in California have doubled in number of sales over last year at this same time. This is at least a sign that the economy might be on the mend.

The year of opportunity---2009

2009-04-07T09:49:00.000-06:00

"The way to make money is to buy when the blood is running in the streets", John D. Rockefeller. This will be the last time in most of our life times to see these kind of real estate opportunities. The buyers who can see the silver lining now, will be hugely rewarded.

Global Connections

2009-04-04T10:20:00.001-06:00

We have over 20,000 real estate brokers in our networks, of which about 3000 are outside of the U.S. Wherever you might be interested in listing or buying a property, we can connect you with a quality real estate broker.

Turn back the clock

2009-04-02T10:27:00.000-06:00

Sellers are wishing that they would have sold two years ago. Really? And what would you have done with the money. Put it in the stock market! By selling now you may beat the stock market and can be a buyer now. The old 'saying', "you make more money on the buy than the sell" has never been more true.

Telluride Real Estate Market Analysis 2008, Forecast 2009

2009-03-31T13:23:00.000-06:00

To read my thorough Market Analysis for 2008 and see the 2009 Forecast for Telluride Real Estate, follow this link.

Sales Activity Report - Update

2009-03-14T07:20:00.000-06:00

This should give you a good idea of our real estate market.

The Harvey Team - Smart Buyers Report

2009-01-12T18:28:00.000-07:00

(December, 2008) At least once in everyone’s lifetime, a real estate opportunity comes along that they will always remember. Some will see what a smart move they made. Others will regret the smart move they could have made. Today, the Telluride Region of Colorado is one of those opportunities.

Twenty-five years ago, George Harvey was explaining why it was an excellent time to buy in Telluride. And it was. The Mountain Village in the mid-80’s presented another occasion. Today, smart buyers are finding value in homes throughout the Telluride region with a broad selection of inventory, favorable interest rates and a proven historical local market.

Once again, the window of opportunity has opened. Buyers are realizing there are a number of reasons to take advantage of current market conditions and purchase their mountain property. There is no better time than the present to create a legacy of memories with your family. Historically, the Telluride region has been a strong market with a general positive trend of average sales price. Fundamentals remain strong. A limited amount of land left to build on continues to keep supply low. In fact, over 67% of the land in San Miguel County is National Forest, Bureau of Land Management land and Colorado public open space.

George Harvey has been here for three decades. He has seen these cycles before:
• The upheaval of the oil patch and recession of the early 1980’s
• The Savings and Loan scandal that affected the market from 1989 to 1991
• The recessions of the early and late 1990’s
• The “dotcom” meltdown of 2000
• September 11, 2001

In every case the Telluride region went into the downturn later and emerged earlier than the rest of the country. Today, the United States has been in a housing downturn for approximately three years. We began to experience the effects in the Telluride region only a year ago. Sophisticated buyers and sellers keep our market strong as property values have remained stable throughout the years even through these past cycles.

Call George Harvey now at 970-369-5373 or email george@tellurideproperties.com For his Best Buys selection and become part of the group of buyers enjoying this market.
www.TheHarveyTeam.net

10-Year Real Estate Comparison Telluride/San Miguel County

2008-12-26T17:17:00.000-07:00

Telluride Regional Real Estate Market

2008-12-23T19:07:00.000-07:00

Enjoy the Telluride Watch newspaper article which I was interviewed about the status of the Telluride regional real estate market:

Real Estate Sales Hit a Wall in November

by Seth Cagin

Feel free to contact me with any questions.

The Good News? Bargains May Be Had.
In the midst of the biggest downturn in the local real estate market in modern history, there is a silver lining.
This could be a great time to buy, local brokers say. There are bargains to be had. But there aren’t as many bargains as you may think, and local professionals count that as another bit of good news. Sellers in the Telluride market, being generally affluent and not desperate to sell, are holding the line on prices and so far the market has not seen a dramatic adjustment.

And here’s something more to cheer: despite the slump, the number of foreclosures remains very small and many owners threatened with foreclosure manage to cure the default and avoid losing their property. This is another indication, local brokers say, that Telluride real estate is retaining its value.

Of course, you would expect any red-blooded real estate broker to accentuate the positive. There is no doubt a degree to which confidence is a key ingredient in any real estate transaction: buyers have to believe they are making a sound investment. Brokers understandably fear that bad news can beget more bad news. No less than Franklin Delano Roosevelt himself, they live by the credo that the only thing to fear is fear itself.
So let’s stop spreading the bad news, already!

It’s not so simple, especially when the bad news slugs you in the face. None of the brokers interviewed this week about the local real estate market were in a state of denial. All readily acknowledged that these are the worst of times for their businesses and agreed that as a result there is a lot of pain spreading its way through the local community. Though it can’t be quantified, employment by the local brokerages – collectively among the region’s biggest sources of employment – is significantly down. That means fewer locals eating out and shopping on main street and more locals competing for a shrinking number of jobs in tourist-related businesses, like hotels and restaurants.

What can easily be quantified is that sales are at a level not seen since 2001-02, during the slump after 9/11, according to figures compiled by Judi Kiernan of Telluride Consulting. Even in that period, there wasn’t a month as slow as last month.

November was a near-total wipeout, with only ten real estate sales closed in the county, for a total dollar volume of just $6.1 million. That compares with 42 transactions worth $51.3 million in November 2007. The meager sales figures translate to a lot fewer commissions earned, compared to previous years, and a lot less in real estate transfer taxes and assessments collected by the Town of Telluride and the Mountain Village Owners Association, revenues that have long been critical to paying for public services.

December is on pace to be even worse. As of mid-month there were only three real estate sales in the county, for a total of just $2.6 million. They were a lot in the Town of Telluride , and two homes, one in Placerville and the second in Ophir.

Dismal numbers like these lead naturally to a pressing question: Has the market reached its bottom? Because like any market, the local real estate economy can start to climb back up only after it hits bottom.

No Crystal Ball
The local misery is obviously linked to the global and national economic meltdown, and the brokers interviewed for this story agreed that their market is not likely to experience a meaningful resurgence until the national situation improves.

None would offer more than a guess as to when that might be, noting that the global situation is beyond anyone’s ability to predict.

“You never know where the bottom is until it’s already been reached,” observed Nels Cary, the owner and managing broker of Peaks Real Estate. But he predicted that the coming season, starting with the holiday period, “will tell us a lot.”

We could be at the bottom and at the start of a rebound, Cary said, “if we see buyers return to the market this winter and if sellers are motivated to negotiate.” Conversely, if that doesn’t happen, if buyers don’t return or sellers don’t drop prices to a level that buyers believe is warranted, having seen real estate drop drastically in other markets, then the bottom will remain somewhere in the future. George Harvey at Telluride Properties, and the president-elect of the Colorado Association of Realtors, has been tracking inventory for years.

“For a ten-year period, from 1990 to 2000, there were an average of between 900 and 1,100 listings on the market at any one time, and roughly 60 percent of them sold each year,” Harvey said. “That was a pretty healthy market.”

The number of properties listed in the county started inching up about three years ago, Harvey said, and spiked this past year, to an average of about 1,800 listings. He has tracked an identical pattern in the Aspen and Vail markets. “The average time on the market is going through the roof,” Harvey said. This must inevitably put downward pressure on prices, he explained. But perhaps less than one might expect because so many property owners in the region have “staying power” and are therefore under little pressure to sell. “Since the first of the year, 30 percent of sellers have adjusted their prices down,” Harvey said. “But that means that 70 percent of the sellers have not.” The result of the resistance to dropping prices is that properties are simply not moving.
“We all have buyers,” Harvey said. “And they’re all waiting. They think they are going to see huge price reductions.”

His prospective buyers think it may happen in 2009, Harvey said, “after March and no later than July.” If they are right and there is an adjustment, Harvey predicts, pent-up demand will produce a flurry of sales, possibly marking the end of the slump. “The affluent still believe in Telluride,” Harvey said. “The person who buys in 2008 or 2009 will look real smart at a cocktail party in five years.” We will know we have bounced back from the bottom when sales return to around one a day, or 30 a month, Harvey said.
“I’d guess that half of that number would be discounted sales,” Harvey said, meaning that the seller was willing to drop the price from its “reasonable high” by somewhere between 20 and 40 percent.

Isolated Deals
“In our market, the bottom won’t be defined so much as a matter of when the prices reach their lowest level,” said T.D. Smith, the president and managing broker of the Telluride Real Estate Corp. “It will be a matter of when sales resume. I don’t think we’ll see significant deflation, like other markets have.” The primary reason he cites is, again, “the holding power of local property owners.”
“I have some clients who are willing to discount,” Smith said. “But it’s isolated.”
Other factors include the small size of the market, Smith said, and the fundamental qualities that drove prices up to their high levels in the first place, the sheer attractiveness of the region for second homes and, increasingly, as a place to retire.

Smith also believes that the local market may recover somewhat ahead of the national economy, based on what he has seen in previous real estate slumps in his 36 years in the market.
“In the past, our market has picked up when there’s been a realization that the national economy has bottomed out,” Smith said.
And yet, he allowed, previous economic crises have not been as deep as the current one. One measure of that is that “even value seekers are not sure where the bottom is.” Even value seekers, in other words, are generally holding off.

One of the three sales that have closed this month was handled by Erik Fallenius , the owner of Nevasca Realty. And that sale was, indeed, a bargain, a lot in the Depot subdivision that sold for $1.1 million, or less than half of the $2.5 million it was listed for at its peak. The same lot sold for $1.1 million in 2001.
“I think that bellwether sales like this one help define the bottom,” Fallenius said.
Fallenius offered up an axiom to explain his thinking about recovery from a real estate slump: “The best properties sell at the lowest prices first,” he said.
The lot he sold in the Depot is a case in point, Fallenius explained. His client recognized the opportunity to acquire a prime parcel at a steep discount. The next comparable property to sell will be the next best property, and because it will then be the best property on the market it will sell at the same price or a slightly higher price, either way marking the beginning of recovery.
“As we bounce along the bottom, we’ll see bellwether sales,” Fallenius predicted. Those bellwethers become the “comparables” used by appraisers to price neighboring properties, putting additional downward pressure on prices. But because “the profile of owners is still very strong,” the price drops will not likely be across the board. Some percentage of sellers will opt instead to wait for prices to recover, even if it takes years. Bargains will be isolated, and will crop up when a seller is “motivated,” meaning that for whatever reason, he or she is willing to drop the price to make the sale.
“My job is to look for those bargains,” Fallenius said. “My survival depends on my ability to understand what’s most salable and at what price to an educated buyer. There are still buyers for those opportunities.”

Austerity Is the Word
The brokers interviewed for this story, including Cary, Fallenius, Smith, and Harvey , have decades of experience in the Telluride market. Each has a fat rolodex to mine when they learn of a bargain, and each takes a long view. But none is sanguine about the market. There is a shakeout in the business that is well underway, they each acknowledged.
“Austerity is the word,” Fallenius said.
Donna Fernald, another Nevasca broker with years of experience in the region, and who overheard Fallenius’s comment, added that in some respects the brutally tough market is turning the clock back to the Telluride of yore.
“It has been fun to simplify our lives,” she said cheerfully.
On a more sobering note, a lot of younger brokers will leave the market. Many have taken or are looking for second or third jobs.
“A lot of people will figure out how to hang on through the winter,” Fernald said. “If there’s no recovery by the spring, we’ll see a lot of repercussions then.”
“We all have to try to maintain our sense of humor and our perspective,” Harvey said. “Our resorts are still beautiful, but we’re having a hard time beating CNN.” He cites as inspiration the notion that the Chinese characters for crisis and opportunity are the same. “The people in the business who are taking proactive steps to take the market to potential clients are going to survive,” Cary said. “Those waiting for business to come to them probably won’t.”
“In 1983, there were 20 licensed brokers in the Telluride Association of Realtors,” Harvey said. “Now there are 245. We may lose 10 or 15 percent of them.”
“We’ve made all the budget cuts we can in all areas that are not fixed,” Smith said.
Even when the market eventually recovers, the local community will feel aftershocks for some time to come, he cautioned. Staff and budget cuts will not be quickly reversed “because we’ll have to stay at this level to pay off the debt we’re taking on now.”

Thanks for reading!
The Watch Newspapers - News, Sports, Weather, Classifieds, Local Events and Businesses in Telluride, Ridgway, Ouray, and Norwood Colorado , as well as the Communities of the Western San Juans

Raging Bull on Private Equity

2008-11-29T17:30:00.000-07:00

One more person bullish on the opportunities available in this market---Steve
Schwarzman, co-founder of the Blackstone Group.

RAGING BULL
November 6th 2008

Steve Schwarzman declares the dawn of a new golden age for private equity.

"I'M NOT Robert de Niro, but I'm a raging bull on private equity," enthused Steve Schwarzman on October 28th. And, lest his strikingly contrarian message be lost on the mostly worried investors gathered at the North American Venture Capital Summit in Canada, the co-founder of the Blackstone Group described this as a "wonderful, wonderful time to be an investor", an "opportunity now of enormous proportions" in which "it is very easy to make money" and "you basically can't lose."

Economic gloom is spreading throughout the world, and many of his fellow financiers are fighting to preserve their shrinking fortunes, including two rival private-equity giants: Kohlberg Kravis Roberts (KKR), which has again postponed its initial public offering (IPO) due to difficult market conditions, and the Carlyle Group, which this week told investors not to expect returns on their money any time soon. Yet Mr Schwarzman's exuberance is of the rational kind--which doubtless makes it all the more galling to his many critics. The severity of the pain felt by others in the financial system is what is creating desperate sellers--and thus the glorious investment opportunities that could ultimately make Mr Schwarzman and his investors richer than ever.

As the old saying goes, the best time to invest is when there is blood in the streets (in this case, Wall Street). And unlike many of his erstwhile rivals, Mr Schwarzman still has plenty of cash to invest. Blackstone closed a record $21 billion fund just as the credit crunch began in August 2007, and has reportedly raised the first $9 billion of a new fund already this year. Though debt is scarce for most deals, meaning Blackstone must risk more of its equity, it has been preparing for a downturn, for example by buying a hedge fund with expertise in stressed debt.

When Warren Buffett urges ordinary investors to buy shares, as he did the other week, after negotiating highly favourable terms for his own firm for valuable stakes in companies such as Goldman Sachs and GE, he is praised for his sage leadership. By contrast, although Mr Schwarzman may have an even better case to make, he lacks Mr Buffett's power to charm. Instead, his speeches often earn him epithets such as "self-serving", "arrogant", and "too cocky by half". A blogger on peHUB[1], an online forum for private-equity types, described Mr Schwarzman's upbeat message in Canada as "either one of the laziest keynote speeches I have ever seen, or one of the most condescending".

Mr Schwarzman may be right to say that pointing out the existence of a silver lining to the very dark cloud shrouding the global economy is "actually meant to be uplifting, in a twisted financial way". But such "making money is easy" comments could also help him regain the title of "Wall Street Titan the Public Loves to Hate". He lost it only recently to Dick "the Gorilla" Fuld, who presided over the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September. (Mr Schwarzman began his career at Lehman, but, as he quipped last week, he "got out...at the right time".)

For most of the 23 years since he founded Blackstone with Pete Peterson, Mr Schwarzman prospered largely unnoticed by the public, who if they knew anything at all about private equity, associated it with Henry Kravis of KKR. Mr Kravis's notorious hostile takeover of RJR Nabisco has just been commemorated with a 20th anniversary edition of the bestselling book about it, "Barbarians at the Gate". Mr Schwarzman's image problems became serious only when he turned 60, and paid Rod Stewart a reported $1m to help him celebrate. Even though this was dwarfed by the sum reportedly paid by another private-equity chief, David Bonderman, to his 60th birthday party entertainers, the Rolling Stones, Mr Schwarzman's party gave the press the opportunity to run lots of articles about his expensive homes and lavish tastes.

Things got worse when the prospectus for the IPO of shares in Blackstone drew attention to the favourable tax treatment typically given to private-equity firms, prompting a frenzied attack on the industry by politicians around the world. (However, thanks to some astute negotiations between Mr Schwarzman and the SEIU, an influential trade union, when proposals for tougher taxation of private equity make their way through Congress next year, as they surely will, the "offenders" mentioned most often by politicians will probably be Blackstone's rivals at KKR.)

CALCULATED OPTIMISM
On October 27th Blackstone's share price dropped to $7, its lowest since the firm's IPO in June 2007 and one-fifth of its peak last year. Its third-quarter results, released on November 6th, were disappointing, largely owing to the lack of opportunities to sell firms in its portfolio because of the freeze in the financial markets. By highlighting the lucrative long-term investment opportunities available, perhaps Mr Schwarzman hoped to boost the flagging share price, and encourage pension funds and wealthy individuals to invest in his new fund. Happily for Mr Schwarzman, the Chinese government recently decided to raise its shareholding in Blackstone, despite the plunge in the value of its investment.

Whether his optimism proves to be justified may depend on how quickly the leading economies get back on their feet--and whether this happens before serious damage is done to some of the indebted companies in Blackstone's portfolio. Blackstone did some big deals at the peak of the market, but quickly shed the bulk of the riskiest to other investors. Mr Schwarzman is doing his bit to help, offering advice to Gordon Brown on how to rescue the financial system and, on November 4th, proposing a plan of action in the WALL STREET JOURNAL. All of which may make Mr Schwarzman wonder why he gets so much criticism. Even his $100m gift to the New York Public Library prompted scepticism, not plaudits. The answer is a sobering one for the financial risk-takers on Wall Street. For two decades investors and commentators lent financiers one of their most precious assets: the benefit of the doubt. That asset has now been redeemed.

See this article with graphics and related items at
http://www.economist.com/people/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12551987

Third Quarter Market Analysis

2008-10-16T19:26:00.000-06:00

As I dictate this 3rd quarter market analysis on Monday, Oct. 13th, the stock market has rallied almost 1000 points. We’ll see if that is an anomaly or a sign of better things to come. Attached is my 3rd quarter ’08 real estate analysis comprised of 12 different categories of real estate in the Telluride regional market. In mid-summer many of the top brokers in the region were quoted in the local newspapers saying they expected the market to pick up by mid-summer. Of course it did not. Also attached you will find the 3rd quarter report by Telluride Consulting, which has been doing market analysis in San Miguel County since 1985. What I attempt to do is combine the market sales information from that study with the inventory currently on the market to arrive at an absorption rate for these 12 property categories. If you would like specific information about any of these categories I can provide it in greater detail.

While the number of sales in our market has been averaging about 30 sales a month out of approximately 1850 properties currently listed, some of the sales are notable. In the month of September, the most expensive ski-in/out lot in Mountain Village sold for over $4.5 million. The most expensive condominium to sell in the region closed the same week in September for almost $6 million and the most expensive home in the town of Telluride to sell this year also closed that exact same week for $4,775,000, which was a record price per square foot. There is always a market for the best properties in the best markets. Additionally, 70% of the current listings have not reduced their asking prices since the first of this year. This speaks to the strength of our sellers and therefore our market. As I have said to many buyers expecting huge discounts, it is generally not going to happen except for the occasional ‘blip’. The toughest challenge for the real estate market this year has been for buyers expecting the same kind of discounts they read about in Florida , Las Vegas or southern California ; in other words 20-30% off or more. Most sellers that are going to adjust their listing prices have already done so. You are seeing the market at its very best buying opportunity in my opinion. We may see between November 5^th (after the election) and December 31^st a little bit of a rush for additional sales due to some sellers desire to get a 15% capital gain on their sale.

I have many clients who are Democrats and Republicans but as Forbes magazine says “it’s never as bad or as good as either side predicts”. Personally I see the local market stabilizing in 2009 and see a steady increase in sales activity back to a good market hopefully by the year 2010. For those buyers who are waiting for a better market in the first quarter of 2009, I predict they will be disappointed. The best buying market you are going to see is right now especially before the Presidential election and possibly through the end of the year. The way that you’ll know when it has bottomed out is you’ll see it in the rear view mirror and you’ll be too late. For those sellers who wish to be able to sell between now and the end of the year they will have to be aggressive in their pricing or have an extremely unique property that the high end affluent individual desires.

Please feel free to contact me with any questions.

Sincerely,

George R. Harvey, Jr.

Comparative Sales Report

Analysis and Predictions

Good News ... Not-So-Good News

2008-07-26T20:24:00.000-06:00

The good news: In my opinion it is the undoubtedly the best time to buy real estate in the Telluride region in over 10 years. At the current sales pace, the market shall absorb about 400 of the approximate 1700 properties currently listed in the Telluride MLS by the end of the year 2008. This means that about 1300 listings will not get sold. Of those, about 85% of the sellers are not highly motivated. They can wait out the market whether it recovers this year or takes all of next year to do so. Remember the vast amount of the sellers are affluent; however, that does leave about 15% of the market of the listings or about 250 sellers that appear to be fairly motivated. Of those, a few are in my opinion are strongly motivated to sell their property in the next 90 days. If you would like a consultation about which properties we believe that involves, email me at george@tellurideproperties.com or call me at 970-369-5373 and we will give you a sampling of our best buy list.

Now for the not so good news: In my opinion if you’re a seller, your property has to be first perceived as a very good value and at the same time be unique in its property category. Instead of the usual 5-10% discount, buyers want a 15-20% discount. We know that doesn’t settle well with many sellers. Be thankful you don’t own property in certain areas of Florida, Las Vegas, Arizona or southern California. You would be looking at significantly greater discounts. As you know our market historically has performed very well and I strongly believe it will continue to do so in the future; however, I sincerely believe it will take the remainder of 2008 and all of 2009 for the market to recover and become a balanced seller and buyer market. What’s a balanced market? When you’re selling in a year as many listings as you have in a year. In English, if there are 1500 listings, then there are 1500 sales. In theory that is a perfectly balanced market in seller demand and buyer demand. We have got a ways to go.

If you would like to discuss your particular property and my opinion of what it would take to get that property sold, please contact me. We have taken great pains to analyze every segment in the market, every type of property and every level of pricing. Again, my contact information is george@tellurideproperties.com or call me at 970-369-5373.

Click each to see the reports:

- San Miguel County Sales Activity / Predictions

- Comparative Sales Report through June 2008

George R. Harvey, Jr.
Broker Associate, Telluride Properties
237 S. Oak St., P.O. Box 37, Telluride, CO 81435
Located at the Telluride Gondola
Office: 970-369-5373 Fax: 970-728-5407
george@tellurideproperties.com
www.theharveyteam.net
www.tellurideproperties.com

* President of Colorado Realtors Land Institute-2007 & 2008
* Telluride Realtor of the Year- 1993 & 2007 * Accredited Buyer Representative
* Certified International Property Specialist * Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist
* Council of Residential Specialist * Graduate of Realtor Institute

Telluride Region Sales Report - 1st Quarter 2008

2008-05-11T21:08:00.000-06:00

As you can see on the attached Telluride region sales summary for the first quarter 2008 (double click to enlarge), the market is a little softer than I predicted. I have also reviewed the first quarter 2008 sales for Aspen, Breckenridge, Vail, Steamboat Springs, Durango, and Jackson Hole and they are all down in dollar amount of sales as well as in number of sales.

The good news is that March & April were much better than January & February in all of these markets including the Telluride region. If we are lucky sales may improve this summer due to attractive interest rates and Buyers deciding that now is a good opportunity to purchase in these historically well performing markets. As I have said before, Sellers in the Rocky Mountain resorts are generally affluent and have great staying power which should help stabilize our markets. According to the Telluride Multiple Listing Service, only about 8% of all of the listings have lowered their price since January 1st of this year.

If you would like to discuss this information in more detail, call me on my cell 970-729-0111.

Sincerely,

George R. Harvey, Jr.
Broker Associate, Telluride Properties
237 S. Oak St., P.O. Box 37, Telluride, CO 81435
Located at the Telluride Gondola
Ofc: 970-369-5373 Fax: 970-728-5407

george@tellurideproperties.com

www.theharveyteam.net

www.tellurideproperties.com

House Lust--Book Review

2008-04-13T13:24:00.000-06:00

It's healthy to laugh at one self occasionally. House Lust pokes fun at the real estate industry in a way that is funny, a little painful and fairly accurate---oh well. David McGinn is a national correspondent at Newsweek and did a thorough job of interviewing industry leaders such as Telluride's own Bob Toll of Toll Brothers national luxury home builders. David went so far as to get his real estate license, attend the National Association annual convention in New Orleans in 2006 ( I was there ) and a wide variety of home improvement companies, flippers, investors, and lenders through the U.S. The book is funny, yet painful at the hysteria that people, sellers and buyers, get into over 'keeping up with the Jones' and especially the second home industry. There are lessons to be learned, hopefully. After reading this book, I can only hope that I can give 'good' advice to my clients and help them with their real estate dreams without making any big mistakes. Get this book and enjoy the ride!

2007 Telluride Region Annual Real Estate Analysis and 2008 Forcast

2008-04-01T07:29:00.000-06:00

We have finally finished our 2007 real estate region analysis and 2008 forecast. If you would like a copy please email your request to george@tellurideproperties.com and we will be glad to mail or email you a copy. Basically, the market is slowing here and throughout the Rocky Mountain resort region. Buyers are still buying but about 20% to 25% less transactions than the first quarter of last year. The price ranges that are suffering the most are in the bottom 25% price point range in each resort market. Our prediction is more of the same for the rest of the year and into 2009. On a positive note, this may be a buyers 'window' for the first time with good selection and some softening of prices. Caution, all seller's motivations are not the same. Only a small percentage of properties ( 5% to 10% ) may have price adjustments. Check out our website, www.theharveyteam.net for quarterly updates, the first out by April 15th.

Telluride Mountain Village Development Statistics

2008-03-06T13:58:00.000-07:00

For those of you that like to see where we are in the 'build out' process in the Mountain Village:

Homes/duplexes Zoning---628 sites/units---333 built---40 building permits---11 DRB process.

Condominiums Zoning---1022 units---422 built---141 permitted---186 DRB process.

The Mountain Village is 65% to 75% built out depending on the zoning.

Interesting Colorado Trivia

2008-02-17T14:54:00.000-07:00

Date admitted to the Union: August 1, 1876, as the 38th state.
Capital City: Denver.
2008 Population: Approximately 4.6 million.
Geographic Size: 104,247 square miles, ranks eighth.
Highest Point: Mt. Elbert, 14,433 feet.
Lowest Point: The Arkansas River at 3,350 feet.
Time zone: Mountain.
Number of counties: 64
State Tree: Colorado Blue Spruce.
State flower: Columbine.
State bird: Lark bunting.
State animal: Bighorn sheep.

Foreign Investment in the U.S.

2008-02-12T14:23:00.000-07:00

What motivates Offshore Buyers? First, they have cash and can move quickly now that our mortgage industry is challenged. Second, because of the falling dollar, combined with the strength of foreign currencies, has made U.S. properties one of the world's best bargains. Third, the prestige of owning U.S. property has not changed. For moguls everywhere, owning a piece of the U.S. is the single best way to say "I have arrived". Fourth, U.S. real estate was already cheap compared to many other countries. For example, the average U.S. home sells for less than half the average price of a home in the EU. All of these reasons make marketing to offshore buyers more important than ever. Is your broker connected to foreign national buyers, we are. Contact us for the details.

Rocky Mountain Resort Wealth

2008-02-06T08:13:00.000-07:00

While the national real estate market has some large trouble spots, the Rocky Mountain Resort Market is not one of them. The number of affluent property owners ( $2M and up in property value ) in Pitkin county ( Aspen ) is 567 owners and in Eagle county ( Vail ) is 722 owners. If you would like to learn more about how the affluent are doing financially and what they are buying, check out the Luxury Insights blog, created by Laurie Moore-Moore's group, The Institute for Luxury Home Marketing based in Dallas, Texas. The upper 2% of the wealth in the world grew in assets by over 16% and the rest of us about 3.5%. Many global markets did much better than the U.S. and they love to buy property here. Stay tuned for my Telluride Market Annual Review due out in about a week. We'll cover not only Telluride, but most of the RM regional resorts.
The Luxury Insights blog address is http://blog.luxuryhomemarketing.com .Enjoy!

Luxury Property Appreciation

2008-01-28T20:16:00.000-07:00

Prime Property Outperforms

Knight Frank, LLP. and Citi Private Bank's 2007 Annual Wealth Report shows that global prime real estate property has outperformed mainstream property in recent years and that prices for the most expensive global property rose on an average by more than 14% in 2006 compared to a 9% rise in the mainstream market.

Sales Up Again for 2007

2008-01-21T19:53:00.000-07:00

As predicted, Telluride and the Resorts of the Rocky Mountain region continue with record breaking sales. Sales volume was up 11% over 2006 coming in at $756.6 million for the Telluride Region. Markets performing the best were the Mountain Village and land/ranch tracks on the mesas and valleys out of town. The Harvey Team had a record year in 2007 and predicts that in 2008 we will show a substantial increase again. In the next week or two, our market analysis will be available for your review. We are going to great efforts to produce the most qualitative and informative analysis ever produced. Stay tuned!

Real Estate Still a Great Investment

2007-12-29T14:46:00.000-07:00

History has proven time and time again that real estate "experts" repeatedly provide the media with bad news regarding real estate for the last half a century are usually wrong! Check out what some of them have predicted:
*Most economists agree...a home will become little more than a roof and a tax deduction, certainly not the lucrative investment it was through most of the 1980's. Money Magazine, 1986.
*Financial planners agree that houses will continue to be a poor investment. Kiplinger's Personal Financial, 1993
*A home is where the bad investment is. San Francisco Examiner, 1996
*The prices of houses seem to have reached a plateau, and there is reasonable expectancy that prices will decline. Time Magazine, 1947

None of these gloom and doom predictions came true; in fact, if investors had purchased real estate at the time of these quotes, they would have profited handsomely----as will investors who take advantage of current markets----especially Telluride.

Peter Lynch, perhaps the greatest stock guru in the history of Wall Street and the author of the bestseller "Beating the Street," was once asked what the greatest investment is. His reply: "A single family house". Nowadays with 10,000 Baby Boomers turning 6o everyday and inheriting nine trillion dollars over the next 17 years----it's probably a second home. Telluride and the Rocky Mountain resort region is poised to have another record year. Happy 2008!

How to Buy Luxury Resort Property (A Four Part Series)

2007-12-13T12:05:00.000-07:00

How to Buy Luxury Resort Property (Part 4 of 4)
The Eight Most Important Items to Consider
By George R. Harvey, Jr.

continuing on with our blog series ...

7. Consider tax benefits. Resort property can offer tax benefits, but it takes the advice of experts such as professional exchangers, CPAs and your trusted personal tax consultant to ensure that you enjoy the benefits. Get expert input on 1031 tax exchanges, primary residence capital gains exclusions and the conversion of one of these to the other and how it affects you and your tax plan. You can even buy resort property in your IRA or Keogh plan, but again these sophisticated deals require the solid, informed advice of experienced tax professionals.

8. Know property management options. To maximize your enjoyment and minimize your responsibilities, you might want to hire a property management company to look after your new investment. If so, you´ll want to determine whether a long-term or short-term program is best. Short-term generally means nightly or weekly rentals, while long-term usually means six to 12 months out of the year. Ask your broker to recommend at least two to three management companies and interview each one. Learn what the fees are, get references, and don´t sign up for anything more than a one-year term. Why? You need to get to know the management company before entering into a long-term relationship.

There you have it. Buying luxury resort property is not as difficult as you might have imagined, especially when you do your homework. And moreover, buying domestic or international resort property is fun and exciting. Plus, it can be financially rewarding. Today´s market offers an unprecedented opportunity to explore mountain, lake and beach resorts. Just remember, enjoy the hunt because it can take you to some remarkably beautiful places. Best of luck as you search for your perfect getaway.

How to Buy Luxury Resort Property (A Four Part Series)

2007-12-03T08:35:00.000-07:00

How to Buy Luxury Resort Property (Part 3 of 4)
The Eight Most Important Items to Consider
By George R. Harvey, Jr.

continuing on with our blog series ...

5. Understand pricing dynamics. When a property piques your interest, find out how long it has been on the market and what the average discount, if any, from asking price to sales price has been for the last six to 12 months. Real estate prices are about supply and demand, so determine whether supply of the property has been increasing or decreasing. Also ask your broker if there are any new major developments that would add significant supply of product competing with yours that might be coming on the market in the near future. (A note on brokers: If you hire a broker who´s working for you as a buyer´s agent, that broker should seek out all seller motivations as well as the unique assets and liabilities for the property you´re considering.) Finally, keep your emotions in check. If you find what appears to be the perfect property, remind yourself that there´s no such thing. Perfection only exists in the buyer´s mind ? for a short period of time. Initially, approach each potential resort property with an investment mindset. In other words, evaluate it as if you were going to have to sell it again after a certain period of time. This will help you choose a property that has broad appeal and potential to move in the marketplace if you ever decide to resell it.

6. Choose local financing. Good mortgage brokers understand the nuances of the local real estate market, so don´t fall into the trap of using a mortgage broker located in city of your primary residence. In order to get business, the local brokers may promise clients they can finance in a resort area where they have no experience. When mortgage lenders and their underwriters determine the risk involved in lending you money they will not only analyze you but the market and individual specific property as well. Experience is important, so choose a seasoned mortgage broker with at least a five-year track record in your resort market area. Again, ask for references and check them out.

How to Buy Luxury Resort Property (A Four Part Series)

2007-11-20T16:21:00.000-07:00

How to Buy Luxury Resort Property (Part 2 of 4)
The Eight Most Important Items to Consider
By George R. Harvey, Jr.

continuing on with our blog series ...

3. Get online. The internet is a valuable tool, particularly when you´re beginning to research potential locations and types of property. It is helpful to take a trip through cyberspace before you ever contact a real estate broker or buy plane tickets. A good place to start is with chambers of commerce and real estate brokerage websites in your locations of interest. While the internet won´t allow you to experience the subtle nuances of a resort, it is an excellent way to get background information and to focus your search before you ever arrive. It is also helpful to look in the county records for the names of people who have bought homes in the area in the past two years. You might consider giving them a call to see what an objective, relatively new resident has to say about the area.

4. Select agents with care. If you´ve worked with a real estate broker in your home area, ask him or her to refer you to a broker in the resort area you´re interested in. Real estate brokers often have extensive networks and know who´s good in niche markets, such as resort properties. Generally, you want a broker with at least five years of experience, who has continuous education past basic entry level of licensing, and proven negotiating skills. For the best experience, make sure to choose a buyer´s agent who represents your interests, not a seller´s agent whose professional responsibility lies with the seller. Interview at least three brokers, checking out their references in the process. And don´t buy into the mistaken idea that negotiating a lower commission or fee will save you money. Hiring a real estate broker is just like hiring a doctor or a lawyer ? you want the best, not the cheapest. The superior negotiating skills of good brokers can save you much more money than any reduced commission that you might bargain for. (A note on buying international property. If you want to buy resort property in another country, hire a broker who has international connections. The best brokers network with the International Real Estate Federation or are a Certified International Property Specialist, meaning they are extensively trained and have developed extensive international networks with the top brokers throughout the world. The customs laws and rules vary greatly from country to country, so it is imperative that you´re working with reliable experts in your chosen country and market.)

How to Buy Luxury Resort Property (A Four Part Series)

2007-11-10T07:39:00.000-07:00

How to Buy Luxury Resort Property (Part 1 of 4)

The Eight Most Important Items to Consider

By George R. Harvey, Jr.

The second home market is booming for many reasons, however, the primary reason is that 10,000 baby boomers are turning sixty everyday and are inheriting $9 trillion dollars over the next fifteen years. Buying luxury resort property is quite different from investing in the traditional homes and condominium market. Here are eight tips to consider when exploring this attractive market.

1. Think location. Real estate is famously about location, location, location. If luxury resort property is going to be your special getaway, get specific about where you want to buy. For convenience sake, it makes sense to consider resorts that are closer to your primary home. But keep in mind, the resorts that are easily accessible to the masses are often overrun with tourists ? and that might not fit your wants. Destination resorts, which are typically a little harder to reach, are more private and personal.

2. Consider types of property. After choosing the location, consider the kind of real estate you want: a home, a condominium, a ranch, a fractional ownership, a club membership or vacant land to build your own dream home. All possess unique advantages and disadvantages. Ask your broker which type has been the best investment in your chosen market. While resort real estate has been an exceptionally good investment for several years, potential return should not be your primary concern. Ultimately, you´re buying resort property because it and its attendant recreation and cultural offerings can bring your family pleasure. Decide what kind of experience you want, and consider it a bonus if you do well financially.

Tellugram Blog

Visit my new TELLUGRAM blog

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